ATLANTA (Reuters) – With hundreds of millions of dollars pouring into twin Jan. 5 Georgia runoff elections to determine control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats and a constellation of allies are waging an all-out campaign to mobilize as many Black voters as possible.
The success of their efforts – targeted advertising, virtual events and even door-to-door canvassing despite the coronavirus pandemic – will likely decide the outcome, analysts said.
“High Black voter turnout is essential to a Democratic victory,” said Andra Gillespie, a professor at Emory University in Atlanta. “If their turnout rate is lower than it is for other groups … that’ll help dig a hole that Democrats won’t be able to dig out of.”
If either or both Republican incumbents, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, win, their party would retain a Senate majority – and the power to thwart Democratic President-elect Joe Biden’s legislative agenda on everything from the economy to climate change and race relations.
Even as Biden was scoring a surprise victory over President Donald Trump in Georgia in the Nov. 3 election, Perdue finished ahead of Jon Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker, falling just short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. The Rev. Raphael Warnock, senior pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, a historic Black church, and Loeffler led a large multi-candidate field in the other race.
In outperforming Trump, Perdue benefited from Republican-leaning voters who disliked Trump but were not willing to vote for down-ballot Democrats.
“Those are going to be difficult voters for Democrats to win over,” Terrance Woodbury, a pollster, said. “They’re very likely voters, and very unlikely to vote for Democrats.”
Another wild card is what effect Trump’s absence from the ticket, and his baseless attacks on the November election, will have on turnout. An informal Reuters survey this month of 50 Georgia Republicans found that all 50 planned to vote even though almost all believed Trump’s attacks.
Early vote totals suggest record turnout for a runoff, and polls show voter engagement remains high amid unprecedented levels of advertising. Total ad spending exceeds $450 million, according to the tracking firm AdImpact.
Woodbury said Black voters were energized but lacked details on the unusual elections. A poll he conducted of Georgia Black women found almost all planned to vote – but a majority did not know the date.
“They don’t have to be convinced to vote, but they do need to be educated on the process – how to vote, where to vote and when to vote,” Woodbury said.
“Antipathy is different than apathy,” he said. “If we engage Black men as though they are apathetic, we’re already losing.”
Reporting by Joseph Ax in Princeton, New Jersey, and Rich McKay in Atlanta; Additional reporting by Susan Cornwell in Washington; Editing by Scott Malone and Peter Cooney
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